H CAPITALQUANTITATIVE RESEARCH & SYSTEMS
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HC / 003 · Experiments

Does card counting create an edge in baccarat?

In ProgressResearch proposal
Proposed study. This research plan is a starting point; analysis and results have not been completed.

A proposed probability experiment on an eight-deck shoe, using simulation and sensitivity analysis.

Abstract

A proposed probability experiment on an eight-deck shoe, using simulation and sensitivity analysis.

Research Question

Can information about remaining cards meaningfully change expected outcomes under specified baccarat rules?

Hypothesis

Removing cards changes conditional probabilities; whether this translates into a practical advantage remains to be tested.

Data

Data has not yet been collected or validated. Sources, sample period, cleaning rules, and exclusions will be documented before analysis.

Methodology

Proposed: specify game rules and payouts; simulate an eight-deck shoe; validate baseline probabilities; estimate conditional outcomes and uncertainty; repeat across penetration assumptions.

Results

No results are available. This page records a proposed study; no backtest or statistical findings are being claimed.

Robustness

Pending analysis. Sensitivity checks, alternative assumptions, uncertainty estimates, and out-of-sample evaluation will be documented here.

Conclusion

Verdict pending. The hypothesis has not yet been tested.

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