Abstract
A cBot trading breakouts from a mature, stable session value area on gold (XAUUSD, M5) returned +38.6% with a 4.5% maximum drawdown from January 2024 to August 2026. Its parameters had been tuned on that same period. Run unchanged on the full history available, January 2013 to September 2026, it finished flat (net −$14.90 on $10,000) with a 51% drawdown and lost money in nine of the eleven years before 2024.
Record
- ID
- HCL-EXP-001
- Title
- Mature Value Expansion V2 on gold, 2013–2026: an out-of-sample test
- Class
- Experiment Report
- Domain
- Strategy research
- Author
- Tommy H.
- Review classification
- AI-assisted adversarial review and author self-review. Independent external peer review: not conducted.
- Version
- 1.0
- Status
- Published
- Verdict
- Not supported
- Confidence
- Moderate
- Reproducibility
- Partial
- Keywords
- XAUUSD, gold, volume profile, value area, breakout, out-of-sample, regime
Recommended citation
Tommy H. (2026). Mature Value Expansion V2 on gold, 2013–2026: an out-of-sample test (HCL-EXP-001, v1.0). H Capital. hcapitalassetmanagement.com